The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Atlanta FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ATL by 0.3market ATL by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.7 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Atlanta Falcons at 51% to win, with the market at ATL by 3.
ATL has the advantage in passing: ATL passing ranks #21, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into ATL's #13.
ATL has the advantage in big plays: ATL explosive pass rate ranks #14, NYJ defends it at #31; the other way NYJ #32 into ATL's #21.
Form: ATL has the better last five games by 23.8 points a game (NYJ -26.8, ATL -3.0).
Home field is with NYJ, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ATL by 0.3 against a market ATL by 3: 2.7 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 42.7 against a line of 38.5: 4.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ATL by 0.3 · market ATL by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL passing ranks #21, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into ATL's #13.
Rushing game
=
Even
ATL rushing ranks #20, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into ATL's #24.
Third down & red zone
ATL
Slight advantage
ATL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #10, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #31 into ATL's #12.
Big plays
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL explosive pass rate ranks #14, NYJ defends it at #31; the other way NYJ #32 into ATL's #21.
Pass protection & rush
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL sack rate ranks #5, NYJ defends it at #29; the other way NYJ #30 into ATL's #4.
Ball security
ATL
Clear advantage
ATL turnovers / game ranks #9, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #20 into ATL's #11.
Form (last 5)
ATL
Clear advantage
NYJ −26.8 per game over the last five, ATL −3.0.
Market
ATL
Slight advantage
Consensus has ATL by 3; the model says ATL by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket ATL by 3 · model ATL by 0.3
Mkt ATL 3
Model ATL 0.3
← ATL by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
4.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 42.7
Mkt 38.5
Model 42.7
20 pts4672 pts
11.0% of NFL games finish between 38.5 and 42.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
