The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Detroit LionsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 2.8market DET by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.3 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 58% to win, with the market at DET by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jared Goff starting for Detroit Lions, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: big plays favours GB. GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into GB's #6. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: DET has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (DET -1.6, GB -9.6).
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 2.8 against a market DET by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 44.3 against a line of 48.5: 4.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 2.8 · market DET by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
DET passing ranks #5, GB defends it at #22; the other way GB #1 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
DET rushing ranks #16, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into DET's #18.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, DET defends it at #9; the other way DET #19 into GB's #20.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into GB's #6.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #17, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into DET's #8.
Ball security
=
Even
DET turnovers / game ranks #6, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
DET −1.6 per game over the last five, GB −9.6.
Market
DET
Slight advantage
Consensus has DET by 2.5; the model says DET by 2.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 2.5 · model DET by 2.8
Mkt DET 2.5
Model DET 2.8
← GB by 28tieDET by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 44.3
Mkt 48.5
Model 44.3
20 pts4672 pts
10.8% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 44.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
