The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%New England PatriotsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 3.4market NE by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.5 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 60% to win, with the market at NE by 7.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Flacco starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
NE has the advantage in passing: NE passing ranks #3, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into NE's #5.
NE has the advantage in big plays: NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #27 into NE's #3.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours CIN. CIN sack rate ranks #10, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into CIN's #23. The pick still lands on NE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: NE has 3 more days since its last game (CIN 7d, NE 10d).
Home field is with CIN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 3.4 against a market NE by 7.5: 4.1 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 58.5 against a line of 50.5: 8.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 3.4 · market NE by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
=
Even
CIN rushing ranks #5, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into CIN's #31.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #5 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #27 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #10, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into CIN's #23.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, CIN defends it at #12; the other way CIN #30 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
NE
Slight advantage
CIN +3.2 per game over the last five, NE +8.0.
Market
NE
Clear advantage
Consensus has NE by 7.5; the model says NE by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 7.5 · model NE by 3.4
Mkt NE 7.5
Model NE 3.4
← NE by 28tieCIN by 28 →
11.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 58.5
Mkt 50.5
Model 58.5
20 pts4672 pts
17.3% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 58.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
