The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
83%Baltimore RavensStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 12.9market BAL by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 83% to win, with the market at BAL by 14.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Tyrod Taylor starting for New York Jets, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #3, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into BAL's #11.
BAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #27, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #31 into BAL's #4.
Rest: NYJ has 3 more days since its last game (BAL 7d, NYJ 10d).
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 32.8 points a game (BAL +6.0, NYJ -26.8).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 12.9 against a market BAL by 14: 1.1 points of daylight in NYJ's favour. The model's total is 47.4 against a line of 44.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 12.9 · market BAL by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #20, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into BAL's #21.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into BAL's #11.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #27, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #31 into BAL's #4.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive pass rate ranks #11, NYJ defends it at #31; the other way NYJ #32 into BAL's #28.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
BAL sack rate ranks #27, NYJ defends it at #29; the other way NYJ #30 into BAL's #31.
Ball security
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #25, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #20 into BAL's #19.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL +6.0 per game over the last five, NYJ −26.8.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 14; the model says BAL by 12.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 14 · model BAL by 12.9
Mkt BAL 14
Model BAL 12.9
← NYJ by 28tieBAL by 28 →
1.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 47.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 47.4
20 pts4672 pts
8.1% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 47.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
