The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Los Angeles ChargersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 3.2market LAC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.7 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 59% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into LAC's #5.
Counterpoint: passing favours JAX. JAX passing ranks #10, LAC defends it at #8; the other way LAC #24 into JAX's #4. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 18.4 points a game (JAX +15.8, LAC -2.6).
Home field is with JAX, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 3.2 against a market LAC by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 48.7 against a line of 43.5: 5.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 3.2 · market LAC by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #10, LAC defends it at #8; the other way LAC #24 into JAX's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
LAC rushing ranks #23, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #14 into LAC's #3.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into LAC's #5.
Big plays
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX explosive rush rate ranks #23, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #28 into JAX's #7.
Pass protection & rush
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC sack rate ranks #29, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into LAC's #6.
Ball security
=
Even
JAX turnovers / game ranks #13, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #14 into JAX's #3.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +15.8 per game over the last five, LAC −2.6.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3; the model says LAC by 3.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3 · model LAC by 3.2
Mkt LAC 3
Model LAC 3.2
← LAC by 28tieJAX by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 48.7
Mkt 43.5
Model 48.7
20 pts4672 pts
14.7% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 48.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
