The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Miami DolphinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 0.1market MIA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 50% to win, with the market at MIA by 2.5.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #9, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into MIA's #20.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 0.1 against a market MIA by 2.5: 2.4 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 50.4 against a line of 47.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 0.1 · market MIA by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
WSH passing ranks #17, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into WSH's #30.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #9, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into MIA's #20.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #19 into WSH's #31.
Big plays
=
Even
MIA explosive pass rate ranks #13, WSH defends it at #25; the other way WSH #18 into MIA's #24.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WSH sack rate ranks #18, MIA defends it at #14; the other way MIA #21 into WSH's #12.
Ball security
=
Even
MIA turnovers / game ranks #27, WSH defends it at #31; the other way WSH #22 into MIA's #21.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
MIA −7.6 per game over the last five, WSH −6.8.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 2.5; the model says MIA by 0.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 2.5 · model MIA by 0.1
Mkt MIA 2.5
Model MIA 0.1
← WSH by 28tieMIA by 28 →
4.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 50.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 50.4
20 pts4672 pts
7.6% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 50.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
