The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Philadelphia EaglesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PHI by 1.2market GB by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.1 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles at 54% to win, with the market at GB by 1.5.
PHI has the advantage in rushing: PHI rushing ranks #12, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into PHI's #6.
Counterpoint: big plays favours GB. GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, PHI defends it at #15; the other way PHI #22 into GB's #10. The pick still lands on PHI because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PHI has 7 more days since its last game (GB 8d, PHI 15d).
Form: PHI has the better last five games by 16.0 points a game (GB -9.6, PHI +6.4).
Home field is with GB, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PHI by 1.2 against a market GB by 1.5: 2.7 points of daylight in PHI's favour. The model's total is 50.1 against a line of 45.5: 4.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PHI by 1.2 · market GB by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
GB passing ranks #1, PHI defends it at #9; the other way PHI #14 into GB's #22.
Rushing game
PHI
Clear advantage
PHI rushing ranks #12, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into PHI's #6.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, PHI defends it at #22; the other way PHI #24 into GB's #20.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, PHI defends it at #15; the other way PHI #22 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
PHI sack rate ranks #13, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into PHI's #15.
Ball security
PHI
Slight advantage
PHI turnovers / game ranks #1, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into PHI's #13.
Form (last 5)
PHI
Clear advantage
GB −9.6 per game over the last five, PHI +6.4.
Market
GB
Slight advantage
Consensus has GB by 1.5; the model says PHI by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 1.5 · model PHI by 1.2
Mkt GB 1.5
Model PHI 1.2
← PHI by 28tieGB by 28 →
4.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 50.1
Mkt 45.5
Model 50.1
20 pts4672 pts
13.3% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 50.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
