The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Los Angeles ChargersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 3.5market LAC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.4 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 60% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.
LAC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into LAC's #5.
LAC has the advantage in rushing: LAC rushing ranks #23, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into LAC's #3.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PIT. PIT sack rate ranks #12, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #29 into PIT's #9. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 3.5 against a market LAC by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 48.4 against a line of 45.5: 2.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 3.5 · market LAC by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC passing ranks #24, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into LAC's #8.
Rushing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC rushing ranks #23, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into LAC's #3.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into LAC's #5.
Big plays
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #9, LAC defends it at #22; the other way LAC #28 into PIT's #19.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #29 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #14 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAC −2.6 per game over the last five, PIT −2.2.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3; the model says LAC by 3.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3 · model LAC by 3.5
Mkt LAC 3
Model LAC 3.5
← PIT by 28tieLAC by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.5, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 48.4
Mkt 45.5
Model 48.4
20 pts4672 pts
8.4% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 48.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
