The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Seattle SeahawksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 11.2market SEA by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.5 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 80% to win, with the market at SEA by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jacoby Brissett starting for Arizona Cardinals, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #7, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #19 into SEA's #6.
SEA has the advantage in rushing: SEA rushing ranks #21, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into SEA's #1.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 35.4 points a game (SEA +16.4, ARI -19.0).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 11.2 against a market SEA by 7: 4.2 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 45.5 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 11.2 · market SEA by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, ARI defends it at #26; the other way ARI #19 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, ARI defends it at #25; the other way ARI #29 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA red-zone touchdown rate ranks #20, ARI defends it at #27; the other way ARI #24 into SEA's #6.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #6, ARI defends it at #22; the other way ARI #26 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, ARI defends it at #28; the other way ARI #24 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
=
Even
SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, ARI defends it at #18; the other way ARI #17 into SEA's #4.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA +16.4 per game over the last five, ARI −19.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 7; the model says SEA by 11.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 7 · model SEA by 11.2
Mkt SEA 7
Model SEA 11.2
← ARI by 28tieSEA by 28 →
7.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 45.5
Mkt 44.5
Model 45.5
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 45.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
