The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Houston TexansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 4.0market JAX by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.8 pointsmarket 37.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 62% to win, with the market at JAX by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Davis Mills starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: big plays favours JAX. JAX explosive pass rate ranks #9, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into JAX's #5. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 10.6 points a game (HOU +5.2, JAX +15.8).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 4.0 against a market JAX by 1.5: 5.5 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 39.8 against a line of 37.5: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 4.0 · market JAX by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks HOU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
JAX passing ranks #10, HOU defends it at #1; the other way HOU #18 into JAX's #4.
Rushing game
=
Even
JAX rushing ranks #14, HOU defends it at #2; the other way HOU #30 into JAX's #16.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #18, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into HOU's #2.
Big plays
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #9, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into JAX's #5.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #9, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into HOU's #5.
Ball security
=
Even
HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, JAX defends it at #3; the other way JAX #13 into HOU's #2.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
HOU +5.2 per game over the last five, JAX +15.8.
Market
JAX
Slight advantage
Consensus has JAX by 1.5; the model says HOU by 4.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket JAX by 1.5 · model HOU by 4.0
Mkt JAX 1.5
Model HOU 4.0
← JAX by 28tieHOU by 28 →
14.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 37.5 · model 39.8
Mkt 37.5
Model 39.8
20 pts4672 pts
4.3% of NFL games finish between 37.5 and 39.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
