The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
89%Los Angeles RamsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 16.2market LAR by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
36.6 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 89% to win, with the market at LAR by 14.
LAR has the advantage in big plays: LAR explosive pass rate ranks #1, NO defends it at #19; the other way NO #31 into LAR's #16.
LAR has the advantage in passing: LAR passing ranks #2, NO defends it at #12; the other way NO #27 into LAR's #11.
Rest: LAR has 7 more days since its last game (LAR 14d, NO 7d).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 16.2 against a market LAR by 14: 2.2 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 36.6 against a line of 44.5: 7.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 16.2 · market LAR by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR passing ranks #2, NO defends it at #12; the other way NO #27 into LAR's #11.
Rushing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR rushing ranks #4, NO defends it at #4; the other way NO #31 into LAR's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, NO defends it at #9; the other way NO #32 into LAR's #8.
Big plays
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR explosive pass rate ranks #1, NO defends it at #19; the other way NO #31 into LAR's #16.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #3, NO defends it at #7; the other way NO #22 into LAR's #13.
Ball security
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #3, NO defends it at #15; the other way NO #28 into LAR's #6.
Form (last 5)
NO
Slight advantage
LAR +3.2 per game over the last five, NO +7.2.
Market
LAR
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAR by 14; the model says LAR by 16.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 14 · model LAR by 16.2
Mkt LAR 14
Model LAR 16.2
← NO by 28tieLAR by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 5.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 36.6
Mkt 44.5
Model 36.6
20 pts4672 pts
23.8% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 36.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
