The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%Los Angeles ChargersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 10.4market LAC by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.7 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 78% to win, with the market at LAC by 10.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cam Ward starting for Tennessee Titans, and the model prices that in.
LAC has the advantage in passing: LAC passing ranks #24, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into LAC's #8.
LAC has the advantage in rushing: LAC rushing ranks #23, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #26 into LAC's #3.
Rest: LAC has 3 more days since its last game (TEN 7d, LAC 10d).
Home field is with TEN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 10.4 against a market LAC by 10: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.7 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 10.4 · market LAC by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC passing ranks #24, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into LAC's #8.
Rushing game
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC rushing ranks #23, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #26 into LAC's #3.
Third down & red zone
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC third-down conversion ranks #4, TEN defends it at #19; the other way TEN #32 into LAC's #5.
Big plays
=
Even
LAC explosive pass rate ranks #23, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #28 into LAC's #7.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LAC sack rate ranks #29, TEN defends it at #10; the other way TEN #26 into LAC's #6.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #14, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #15 into LAC's #7.
Form (last 5)
LAC
Slight advantage
TEN −7.2 per game over the last five, LAC −2.6.
Market
LAC
Clear advantage
Consensus has LAC by 10; the model says LAC by 10.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 10 · model LAC by 10.4
Mkt LAC 10
Model LAC 10.4
← LAC by 28tieTEN by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 10, a number 5.0% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 43.7
Mkt 44.5
Model 43.7
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 43.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
