The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Indianapolis ColtsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IND by 0.9market IND by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.9 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indianapolis Colts at 53% to win, with the market at IND by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Aaron Rodgers starting for Pittsburgh Steelers, and the model prices that in.
IND has the advantage in rushing: IND rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into IND's #8.
IND has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IND third-down conversion ranks #7, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into IND's #25.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PIT. PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, IND defends it at #10; the other way IND #21 into PIT's #5. The pick still lands on IND because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: PIT has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (PIT -2.2, IND -10.8).
Home field is with PIT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IND by 0.9 against a market IND by 3.5: 2.6 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 56.9 against a line of 51.5: 5.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IND by 0.9 · market IND by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IND
Slight advantage
IND passing ranks #11, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into IND's #18.
Rushing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND rushing ranks #2, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into IND's #8.
Third down & red zone
IND
Slight advantage
IND third-down conversion ranks #7, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into IND's #25.
Big plays
=
Even
IND explosive rush rate ranks #13, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #9 into IND's #12.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, IND defends it at #24; the other way IND #7 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, IND defends it at #10; the other way IND #21 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, IND −10.8.
Market
IND
Clear advantage
Consensus has IND by 3.5; the model says IND by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket IND by 3.5 · model IND by 0.9
Mkt IND 3.5
Model IND 0.9
← IND by 28tiePIT by 28 →
11.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 56.9
Mkt 51.5
Model 56.9
20 pts4672 pts
9.0% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 56.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
