The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%San Francisco 49ersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 1.6market SF by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 55% to win, with the market at SF by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Mac Jones starting for San Francisco 49ers, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, NYG defends it at #26; the other way NYG #28 into SF's #14.
SF has the advantage in big plays: SF explosive rush rate ranks #25, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #18 into SF's #8.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours NYG. NYG turnovers / game ranks #10, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into NYG's #25. The pick still lands on SF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 1.6 against a market SF by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 47.4 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 1.6 · market SF by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NYG passing ranks #16, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into NYG's #17.
Rushing game
SF
Slight advantage
SF rushing ranks #13, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #10 into SF's #23.
Third down & red zone
SF
Clear advantage
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, NYG defends it at #26; the other way NYG #28 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SF
Slight advantage
SF explosive rush rate ranks #25, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #18 into SF's #8.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
SF sack rate ranks #4, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #23 into SF's #32.
Ball security
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG turnovers / game ranks #10, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into NYG's #25.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Slight advantage
NYG +2.4 per game over the last five, SF −3.2.
Market
SF
Slight advantage
Consensus has SF by 2.5; the model says SF by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 2.5 · model SF by 1.6
Mkt SF 2.5
Model SF 1.6
← SF by 28tieNYG by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 47.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 47.4
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
