The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Denver BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEN by 0.3market HOU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
38.6 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Denver Broncos at 51% to win, with the market at HOU by 1.5.
DEN has the advantage in big plays: DEN explosive pass rate ranks #19, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into DEN's #4.
DEN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #22, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into DEN's #3.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours HOU. HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #11 into HOU's #2. The pick still lands on DEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DEN by 0.3 against a market HOU by 1.5: 1.8 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 38.6 against a line of 40.5: 1.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEN by 0.3 · market HOU by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
HOU passing ranks #18, DEN defends it at #7; the other way DEN #12 into HOU's #1.
Rushing game
=
Even
DEN rushing ranks #19, HOU defends it at #2; the other way HOU #30 into DEN's #10.
Third down & red zone
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #22, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into DEN's #3.
Big plays
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN explosive pass rate ranks #19, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into DEN's #4.
Pass protection & rush
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN sack rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #5; the other way HOU #9 into DEN's #1.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, DEN defends it at #22; the other way DEN #11 into HOU's #2.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU +5.2 per game over the last five, DEN +1.8.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 1.5; the model says DEN by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 1.5 · model DEN by 0.3
Mkt HOU 1.5
Model DEN 0.3
← DEN by 28tieHOU by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 38.6
Mkt 40.5
Model 38.6
20 pts4672 pts
5.9% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 38.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
