The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Detroit LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 10.8market DET by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 79% to win, with the market at DET by 9.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with J.J. McCarthy starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #5, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into DET's #14.
Counterpoint: big plays favours MIN. MIN explosive rush rate ranks #4, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into MIN's #16. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DET has 3 more days since its last game (DET 13d, MIN 10d).
Form: MIN has the better last five games by 15.2 points a game (DET -1.6, MIN +13.6).
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 10.8 against a market DET by 9.5: 1.3 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 50.8 against a line of 47.5: 3.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 10.8 · market DET by 9.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET passing ranks #5, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIN rushing ranks #18, DET defends it at #18; the other way DET #16 into MIN's #13.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, DET defends it at #22; the other way DET #9 into MIN's #1.
Big plays
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN explosive rush rate ranks #4, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into MIN's #16.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #17, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into DET's #8.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #6, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
MIN
Clear advantage
DET −1.6 per game over the last five, MIN +13.6.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 9.5; the model says DET by 10.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 9.5 · model DET by 10.8
Mkt DET 9.5
Model DET 10.8
← MIN by 28tieDET by 28 →
2.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 50.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 50.8
20 pts4672 pts
7.6% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 50.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
