The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Cincinnati BengalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 3.4market CHI by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 60% to win, with the market at CHI by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Flacco starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, CIN defends it at #12; the other way CIN #30 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 3.4 against a market CHI by 3: 6.4 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 53.8 against a line of 51.5: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 3.4 · market CHI by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI passing ranks #9, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into CHI's #19.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #5 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #5 into CHI's #16.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive pass rate ranks #7, CIN defends it at #29; the other way CIN #27 into CHI's #32.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, CIN defends it at #23; the other way CIN #10 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, CIN defends it at #12; the other way CIN #30 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN +3.2 per game over the last five, CHI 0.0.
Market
CHI
Slight advantage
Consensus has CHI by 3; the model says CIN by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CHI by 3 · model CIN by 3.4
Mkt CHI 3
Model CIN 3.4
← CHI by 28tieCIN by 28 →
17.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 53.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 53.8
20 pts4672 pts
3.4% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 53.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
