The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 0.3market GB by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.5 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 51% to win, with the market at GB by 3.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into GB's #10.
GB has the advantage in passing: GB passing ranks #1, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into GB's #22.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PIT. PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into PIT's #5. The pick still lands on GB because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PIT has 3 more days since its last game (PIT 10d, GB 7d).
Form: PIT has the better last five games by 7.4 points a game (PIT -2.2, GB -9.6).
Home field is with PIT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 0.3 against a market GB by 3: 2.7 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 47.5 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 0.3 · market GB by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor PIT, but the model still picks GB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
GB
Clear advantage
GB passing ranks #1, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into GB's #22.
Rushing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT rushing ranks #7, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into PIT's #26.
Third down & red zone
GB
Slight advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into GB's #20.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive pass rate ranks #3, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into GB's #10.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, GB −9.6.
Market
GB
Slight advantage
Consensus has GB by 3; the model says GB by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 3 · model GB by 0.3
Mkt GB 3
Model GB 0.3
← GB by 28tiePIT by 28 →
4.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 47.5
Mkt 46.5
Model 47.5
20 pts4672 pts
3.3% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 47.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
