The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Houston TexansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 3.0market HOU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.6 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Texans at 59% to win, with the market at HOU by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Mac Jones starting for San Francisco 49ers, and the model prices that in.
HOU has the advantage in passing: HOU passing ranks #18, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into HOU's #1.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours SF. SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into SF's #14. The pick still lands on HOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 8.4 points a game (HOU +5.2, SF -3.2).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 3.0 against a market HOU by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 37.6 against a line of 41.5: 3.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 3.0 · market HOU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU passing ranks #18, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into HOU's #1.
Rushing game
=
Even
HOU rushing ranks #30, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into HOU's #2.
Third down & red zone
SF
Clear advantage
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #29 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SF
Slight advantage
SF explosive pass rate ranks #15, HOU defends it at #17; the other way HOU #20 into SF's #6.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #9, SF defends it at #32; the other way SF #4 into HOU's #5.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #12, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into HOU's #2.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU +5.2 per game over the last five, SF −3.2.
Market
HOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has HOU by 2.5; the model says HOU by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket HOU by 2.5 · model HOU by 3.0
Mkt HOU 2.5
Model HOU 3.0
← SF by 28tieHOU by 28 →
7.7% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 37.6
Mkt 41.5
Model 37.6
20 pts4672 pts
11.2% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 37.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
