The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Washington CommandersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
WSH by 0.5market DAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.4 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Washington Commanders at 52% to win, with the market at DAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jayden Daniels starting for Washington Commanders, and the model prices that in.
WSH has the advantage in big plays: WSH explosive rush rate ranks #8, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #19 into WSH's #26.
Counterpoint: passing favours DAL. DAL passing ranks #6, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into DAL's #31. The pick still lands on WSH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it WSH by 0.5 against a market DAL by 1.5: 2.0 points of daylight in WSH's favour. The model's total is 60.4 against a line of 54.5: 5.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model WSH by 0.5 · market DAL by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DAL
Slight advantage
DAL passing ranks #6, WSH defends it at #30; the other way WSH #17 into DAL's #31.
Rushing game
=
Even
DAL rushing ranks #8, WSH defends it at #28; the other way WSH #11 into DAL's #30.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
WSH red-zone touchdown rate ranks #5, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #12 into WSH's #31.
Big plays
WSH
Slight advantage
WSH explosive rush rate ranks #8, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #19 into WSH's #26.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
WSH sack rate ranks #18, DAL defends it at #26; the other way DAL #6 into WSH's #12.
Ball security
=
Even
DAL turnovers / game ranks #19, WSH defends it at #31; the other way WSH #22 into DAL's #30.
Form (last 5)
WSH
Slight advantage
DAL −9.8 per game over the last five, WSH −6.8.
Market
DAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DAL by 1.5; the model says WSH by 0.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 1.5 · model WSH by 0.5
Mkt DAL 1.5
Model WSH 0.5
← WSH by 28tieDAL by 28 →
2.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 60.4
Mkt 54.5
Model 60.4
20 pts4672 pts
10.2% of NFL games finish between 54.5 and 60.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
