The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 4.6market LAR by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
37.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 63% to win, with the market at LAR by 3.
LAR has the advantage in rushing: LAR rushing ranks #4, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #14 into LAR's #7.
LAR has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #8 into LAR's #8.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 12.6 points a game (JAX +15.8, LAR +3.2).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 4.6 against a market LAR by 3: 1.6 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 37.4 against a line of 44.5: 7.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 4.6 · market LAR by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
LAR passing ranks #2, JAX defends it at #4; the other way JAX #10 into LAR's #11.
Rushing game
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR rushing ranks #4, JAX defends it at #16; the other way JAX #14 into LAR's #7.
Third down & red zone
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #7, JAX defends it at #24; the other way JAX #8 into LAR's #8.
Big plays
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR explosive rush rate ranks #6, JAX defends it at #7; the other way JAX #23 into LAR's #5.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #3, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into LAR's #13.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #3, JAX defends it at #3; the other way JAX #13 into LAR's #6.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX +15.8 per game over the last five, LAR +3.2.
Market
LAR
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAR by 3; the model says LAR by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 3 · model LAR by 4.6
Mkt LAR 3
Model LAR 4.6
← LAR by 28tieJAX by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 37.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 37.4
20 pts4672 pts
20.3% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 37.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
