The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Pittsburgh SteelersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 2.9market PIT by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 58% to win, with the market at PIT by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Joe Flacco starting for Cincinnati Bengals, and the model prices that in.
PIT has the advantage in big plays: PIT explosive rush rate ranks #9, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #20 into PIT's #19.
PIT has the advantage in passing: PIT passing ranks #22, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into PIT's #16.
Home field is with CIN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 2.9 against a market PIT by 5.5: 2.6 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 47.5 against a line of 45.5: 2.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 2.9 · market PIT by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT passing ranks #22, CIN defends it at #28; the other way CIN #25 into PIT's #16.
Rushing game
=
Even
PIT rushing ranks #7, CIN defends it at #31; the other way CIN #5 into PIT's #26.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CIN third-down conversion ranks #5, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into CIN's #27.
Big plays
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT explosive rush rate ranks #9, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #20 into PIT's #19.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, CIN defends it at #23; the other way CIN #10 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, CIN defends it at #12; the other way CIN #30 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN +3.2 per game over the last five, PIT −2.2.
Market
PIT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PIT by 5.5; the model says PIT by 2.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 5.5 · model PIT by 2.9
Mkt PIT 5.5
Model PIT 2.9
← PIT by 28tieCIN by 28 →
11.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 47.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 47.5
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 47.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
