The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Denver BroncosStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEN by 9.8market DEN by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.2 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Denver Broncos at 77% to win, with the market at DEN by 7.5.
DEN has the advantage in passing: DEN passing ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into DEN's #7.
DEN has the advantage in big plays: DEN explosive pass rate ranks #19, NYJ defends it at #31; the other way NYJ #32 into DEN's #4.
Form: DEN has the better last five games by 28.6 points a game (NYJ -26.8, DEN +1.8).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it DEN by 9.8 against a market DEN by 7.5: 2.3 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 43.2 against a line of 43.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEN by 9.8 · market DEN by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN passing ranks #12, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #28 into DEN's #7.
Rushing game
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN rushing ranks #19, NYJ defends it at #21; the other way NYJ #28 into DEN's #10.
Third down & red zone
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #22, NYJ defends it at #28; the other way NYJ #31 into DEN's #3.
Big plays
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN explosive pass rate ranks #19, NYJ defends it at #31; the other way NYJ #32 into DEN's #4.
Pass protection & rush
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN sack rate ranks #2, NYJ defends it at #29; the other way NYJ #30 into DEN's #1.
Ball security
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN turnovers / game ranks #11, NYJ defends it at #32; the other way NYJ #20 into DEN's #22.
Form (last 5)
DEN
Clear advantage
NYJ −26.8 per game over the last five, DEN +1.8.
Market
DEN
Clear advantage
Consensus has DEN by 7.5; the model says DEN by 9.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DEN by 7.5 · model DEN by 9.8
Mkt DEN 7.5
Model DEN 9.8
← DEN by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 43.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 43.2
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
