The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 2.5market GB by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.1 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 57% to win, with the market at GB by 7.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Jordan Love starting for Green Bay Packers, and the model prices that in.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #19 into GB's #6.
GB has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: GB third-down conversion ranks #2, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #8 into GB's #20.
Home field is with DAL, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 2.5 against a market GB by 7: 4.5 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 45.1 against a line of 47.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 2.5 · market GB by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
GB
Slight advantage
GB passing ranks #1, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #6 into GB's #22.
Rushing game
=
Even
DAL rushing ranks #8, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into DAL's #30.
Third down & red zone
GB
Clear advantage
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #8 into GB's #20.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #19 into GB's #6.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
DAL sack rate ranks #6, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into DAL's #26.
Ball security
GB
Clear advantage
GB turnovers / game ranks #2, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into GB's #26.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DAL −9.8 per game over the last five, GB −9.6.
Market
GB
Clear advantage
Consensus has GB by 7; the model says GB by 2.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 7 · model GB by 2.5
Mkt GB 7
Model GB 2.5
← GB by 28tieDAL by 28 →
14.4% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 8.6% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 45.1
Mkt 47.5
Model 45.1
20 pts4672 pts
5.7% of NFL games finish between 47.5 and 45.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
