The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%San Francisco 49ersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SF by 8.1market SF by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.2 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Francisco 49ers at 73% to win, with the market at SF by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Trevor Lawrence starting for Jacksonville Jaguars, and the model prices that in.
SF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SF third-down conversion ranks #1, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into SF's #14.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours JAX. JAX turnovers / game ranks #13, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into JAX's #3. The pick still lands on SF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: JAX has the better last five games by 19.0 points a game (SF -3.2, JAX +15.8).
Home field is with SF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SF by 8.1 against a market SF by 3.5: 4.6 points of daylight in SF's favour. The model's total is 40.2 against a line of 45.5: 5.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SF by 8.1 · market SF by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor JAX, but the model still picks SF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX passing ranks #10, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into JAX's #4.
Rushing game
JAX
Slight advantage
JAX rushing ranks #14, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into JAX's #16.
Third down & red zone
SF
Clear advantage
SF third-down conversion ranks #1, JAX defends it at #21; the other way JAX #14 into SF's #14.
Big plays
=
Even
JAX explosive pass rate ranks #9, SF defends it at #6; the other way SF #15 into JAX's #5.
Pass protection & rush
SF
Slight advantage
SF sack rate ranks #4, JAX defends it at #30; the other way JAX #16 into SF's #32.
Ball security
JAX
Clear advantage
JAX turnovers / game ranks #13, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into JAX's #3.
Form (last 5)
JAX
Clear advantage
SF −3.2 per game over the last five, JAX +15.8.
Market
SF
Clear advantage
Consensus has SF by 3.5; the model says SF by 8.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 3.5 · model SF by 8.1
Mkt SF 3.5
Model SF 8.1
← JAX by 28tieSF by 28 →
15.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 40.2
Mkt 45.5
Model 40.2
20 pts4672 pts
14.9% of NFL games finish between 45.5 and 40.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
