The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Minnesota VikingsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 1.4market MIN by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.6 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 54% to win, with the market at MIN by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Carson Wentz starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in big plays: MIN explosive pass rate ranks #24, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into MIN's #1.
MIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MIN third-down conversion ranks #31, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into MIN's #3.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours PIT. PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into PIT's #5. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MIN has the better last five games by 15.8 points a game (PIT -2.2, MIN +13.6).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 1.4 against a market MIN by 2.5: 1.1 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 44.6 against a line of 41.5: 3.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 1.4 · market MIN by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN passing ranks #29, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into MIN's #2.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIN rushing ranks #18, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into MIN's #13.
Third down & red zone
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN third-down conversion ranks #31, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into MIN's #3.
Big plays
MIN
Slight advantage
MIN explosive pass rate ranks #24, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into MIN's #1.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
MIN
Clear advantage
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, MIN +13.6.
Market
MIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIN by 2.5; the model says MIN by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 2.5 · model MIN by 1.4
Mkt MIN 2.5
Model MIN 1.4
← MIN by 28tiePIT by 28 →
2.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 44.6
Mkt 41.5
Model 44.6
20 pts4672 pts
9.1% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 44.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
