The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Baltimore RavensSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 3.7market BAL by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.8 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 61% to win, with the market at BAL by 4.5.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #3, DET defends it at #18; the other way DET #16 into BAL's #11.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DET. DET sack rate ranks #17, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into DET's #8. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 7.6 points a game (BAL +6.0, DET -1.6).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 3.7 against a market BAL by 4.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 62.8 against a line of 53.5: 9.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 3.7 · market BAL by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DET, but the model still picks BAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #5, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, DET defends it at #18; the other way DET #16 into BAL's #11.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, DET defends it at #9; the other way DET #19 into BAL's #11.
Big plays
=
Even
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into BAL's #21.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Clear advantage
DET sack rate ranks #17, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into DET's #8.
Ball security
DET
Clear advantage
DET turnovers / game ranks #6, BAL defends it at #19; the other way BAL #25 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL +6.0 per game over the last five, DET −1.6.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 4.5; the model says BAL by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 4.5 · model BAL by 3.7
Mkt BAL 4.5
Model BAL 3.7
← DET by 28tieBAL by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 62.8
Mkt 53.5
Model 62.8
20 pts4672 pts
15.0% of NFL games finish between 53.5 and 62.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
