The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 6.8market KC by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 69% to win, with the market at KC by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Patrick Mahomes starting for Kansas City Chiefs, and the model prices that in.
KC has the advantage in rushing: KC rushing ranks #15, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #10 into KC's #9.
KC has the advantage in big plays: KC explosive rush rate ranks #31, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #18 into KC's #4.
Form: NYG has the better last five games by 10.2 points a game (NYG +2.4, KC -7.8).
Home field is with NYG, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 6.8 against a market KC by 6: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.4 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 6.8 · market KC by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
KC passing ranks #13, NYG defends it at #17; the other way NYG #16 into KC's #15.
Rushing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC rushing ranks #15, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #10 into KC's #9.
Third down & red zone
KC
Slight advantage
KC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #13, NYG defends it at #26; the other way NYG #28 into KC's #7.
Big plays
KC
Slight advantage
KC explosive rush rate ranks #31, NYG defends it at #32; the other way NYG #18 into KC's #4.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NYG sack rate ranks #23, KC defends it at #20; the other way KC #20 into NYG's #17.
Ball security
=
Even
KC turnovers / game ranks #5, NYG defends it at #25; the other way NYG #10 into KC's #27.
Form (last 5)
NYG
Clear advantage
NYG +2.4 per game over the last five, KC −7.8.
Market
KC
Clear advantage
Consensus has KC by 6; the model says KC by 6.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 6 · model KC by 6.8
Mkt KC 6
Model KC 6.8
← KC by 28tieNYG by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 6 and 6.8, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 6. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 43.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 43.4
20 pts4672 pts
3.9% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 43.4. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
