The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Dallas CowboysLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DAL by 3.1market DAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.0 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Dallas Cowboys at 59% to win, with the market at DAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Caleb Williams starting for Chicago Bears, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on DAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: CHI has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (CHI +0.0, DAL -9.8).
Home field is with CHI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DAL by 3.1 against a market DAL by 1.5: 1.6 points of daylight in DAL's favour. The model's total is 50.0 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DAL by 3.1 · market DAL by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks DAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI passing ranks #9, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #6 into CHI's #19.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #8 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, DAL defends it at #32; the other way DAL #8 into CHI's #16.
Big plays
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI explosive rush rate ranks #11, DAL defends it at #31; the other way DAL #19 into CHI's #25.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, DAL defends it at #26; the other way DAL #6 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, DAL defends it at #30; the other way DAL #19 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI 0.0 per game over the last five, DAL −9.8.
Market
DAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has DAL by 1.5; the model says DAL by 3.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DAL by 1.5 · model DAL by 3.1
Mkt DAL 1.5
Model DAL 3.1
← DAL by 28tieCHI by 28 →
9.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 50.0
Mkt 49.5
Model 50.0
20 pts4672 pts
2.6% of NFL games finish between 49.5 and 50.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
