The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
65%Indianapolis ColtsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IND by 5.3market IND by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.5 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Indianapolis Colts at 65% to win, with the market at IND by 6.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Cam Ward starting for Tennessee Titans, and the model prices that in.
IND has the advantage in rushing: IND rushing ranks #2, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #26 into IND's #8.
IND has the advantage in passing: IND passing ranks #11, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into IND's #18.
Home field is with TEN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it IND by 5.3 against a market IND by 6: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.5 against a line of 43.5: 7.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IND by 5.3 · market IND by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND passing ranks #11, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #31 into IND's #18.
Rushing game
IND
Clear advantage
IND rushing ranks #2, TEN defends it at #22; the other way TEN #26 into IND's #8.
Third down & red zone
IND
Clear advantage
IND red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #14 into IND's #10.
Big plays
IND
Slight advantage
IND explosive pass rate ranks #21, TEN defends it at #30; the other way TEN #28 into IND's #18.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
IND sack rate ranks #7, TEN defends it at #10; the other way TEN #26 into IND's #24.
Ball security
IND
Slight advantage
IND turnovers / game ranks #21, TEN defends it at #29; the other way TEN #15 into IND's #10.
Form (last 5)
TEN
Slight advantage
TEN −7.2 per game over the last five, IND −10.8.
Market
IND
Clear advantage
Consensus has IND by 6; the model says IND by 5.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket IND by 6 · model IND by 5.3
Mkt IND 6
Model IND 5.3
← IND by 28tieTEN by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 6 and 5.3, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 6. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 50.5
Mkt 43.5
Model 50.5
20 pts4672 pts
19.6% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 50.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
