The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Pittsburgh SteelersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 1.4market PIT by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.7 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 54% to win, with the market at PIT by 1.5.
PIT has the advantage in rushing: PIT rushing ranks #7, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into PIT's #26.
Counterpoint: passing favours NE. NE passing ranks #3, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into NE's #5. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NE has the better last five games by 10.2 points a game (NE +8.0, PIT -2.2).
Home field is with NE, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 1.4 against a market PIT by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 45.7 against a line of 44.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 1.4 · market PIT by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NE, but the model still picks PIT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT rushing ranks #7, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into PIT's #26.
Third down & red zone
NE
Slight advantage
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT sack rate ranks #12, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, NE defends it at #9; the other way NE #16 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
NE
Clear advantage
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, PIT −2.2.
Market
PIT
Slight advantage
Consensus has PIT by 1.5; the model says PIT by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 1.5 · model PIT by 1.4
Mkt PIT 1.5
Model PIT 1.4
← PIT by 28tieNE by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 45.7
Mkt 44.5
Model 45.7
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 45.7. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
