The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Buffalo BillsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 12.3market BUF by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.9 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 82% to win, with the market at BUF by 12.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Josh Allen starting for Buffalo Bills, and the model prices that in.
BUF has the advantage in passing: BUF passing ranks #4, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into BUF's #10.
BUF has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #19 into BUF's #19.
Form: BUF has the better last five games by 13.4 points a game (BUF +5.8, MIA -7.6).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 12.3 against a market BUF by 12.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.9 against a line of 50.5: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 12.3 · market BUF by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF passing ranks #4, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into BUF's #10.
Rushing game
=
Even
MIA rushing ranks #9, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #1 into MIA's #20.
Third down & red zone
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #2, MIA defends it at #23; the other way MIA #19 into BUF's #19.
Big plays
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF explosive pass rate ranks #4, MIA defends it at #24; the other way MIA #13 into BUF's #9.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
MIA sack rate ranks #21, BUF defends it at #19; the other way BUF #19 into MIA's #14.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #18, MIA defends it at #21; the other way MIA #27 into BUF's #14.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF +5.8 per game over the last five, MIA −7.6.
Market
BUF
Clear advantage
Consensus has BUF by 12.5; the model says BUF by 12.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BUF by 12.5 · model BUF by 12.3
Mkt BUF 12.5
Model BUF 12.3
← MIA by 28tieBUF by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 52.9
Mkt 50.5
Model 52.9
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 52.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
