The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
65%Pittsburgh SteelersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PIT by 5.3market PIT by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.0 pointsmarket 40.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% to win, with the market at PIT by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Darnold starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours SEA. SEA passing ranks #7, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into SEA's #6. The pick still lands on PIT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 18.6 points a game (PIT -2.2, SEA +16.4).
Home field is with PIT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PIT by 5.3 against a market PIT by 3.5: 1.8 points of daylight in PIT's favour. The model's total is 42.0 against a line of 40.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PIT by 5.3 · market PIT by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor SEA, but the model still picks PIT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, PIT defends it at #16; the other way PIT #22 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #7 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA third-down conversion ranks #16, PIT defends it at #26; the other way PIT #20 into SEA's #1.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #6, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #25 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
PIT sack rate ranks #12, SEA defends it at #11; the other way SEA #11 into PIT's #9.
Ball security
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #7, SEA defends it at #4; the other way SEA #26 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
PIT −2.2 per game over the last five, SEA +16.4.
Market
PIT
Clear advantage
Consensus has PIT by 3.5; the model says PIT by 5.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket PIT by 3.5 · model PIT by 5.3
Mkt PIT 3.5
Model PIT 5.3
← SEA by 28tiePIT by 28 →
4.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 40.5 · model 42.0
Mkt 40.5
Model 42.0
20 pts4672 pts
3.4% of NFL games finish between 40.5 and 42.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
