The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Miami DolphinsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIA by 7.2market MIA by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.5 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Miami Dolphins at 70% to win, with the market at MIA by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Drake Maye starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
MIA has the advantage in rushing: MIA rushing ranks #9, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into MIA's #20.
Counterpoint: passing favours NE. NE passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into NE's #5. The pick still lands on MIA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NE has the better last five games by 15.6 points a game (MIA -7.6, NE +8.0).
Home field is with MIA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIA by 7.2 against a market MIA by 1.5: 5.7 points of daylight in MIA's favour. The model's total is 39.5 against a line of 43.5: 4.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIA by 7.2 · market MIA by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor NE, but the model still picks MIA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, MIA defends it at #27; the other way MIA #23 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA rushing ranks #9, NE defends it at #12; the other way NE #27 into MIA's #20.
Third down & red zone
NE
Clear advantage
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, MIA defends it at #18; the other way MIA #27 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, MIA defends it at #24; the other way MIA #13 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
MIA
Slight advantage
MIA sack rate ranks #21, NE defends it at #16; the other way NE #28 into MIA's #14.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, MIA defends it at #21; the other way MIA #27 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
NE
Clear advantage
MIA −7.6 per game over the last five, NE +8.0.
Market
MIA
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIA by 1.5; the model says MIA by 7.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIA by 1.5 · model MIA by 7.2
Mkt MIA 1.5
Model MIA 7.2
← NE by 28tieMIA by 28 →
22.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 39.5
Mkt 43.5
Model 39.5
20 pts4672 pts
12.1% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 39.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
