The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Detroit LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 10.7market DET by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.9 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 79% to win, with the market at DET by 6.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #5, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #9 into DET's #14.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #6 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 10.7 against a market DET by 6: 4.7 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 48.9 against a line of 46.5: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 10.7 · market DET by 6
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks DET. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DET
Slight advantage
DET passing ranks #5, CHI defends it at #19; the other way CHI #9 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, DET defends it at #18; the other way DET #16 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CHI third-down conversion ranks #6, DET defends it at #9; the other way DET #19 into CHI's #16.
Big plays
=
Even
DET explosive pass rate ranks #5, CHI defends it at #32; the other way CHI #7 into DET's #26.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CHI sack rate ranks #1, DET defends it at #8; the other way DET #17 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, DET defends it at #17; the other way DET #6 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
DET −1.6 per game over the last five, CHI 0.0.
Market
DET
Clear advantage
Consensus has DET by 6; the model says DET by 10.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 6 · model DET by 10.7
Mkt DET 6
Model DET 10.7
← CHI by 28tieDET by 28 →
10.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 6.7% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 48.9
Mkt 46.5
Model 48.9
20 pts4672 pts
6.1% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 48.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
