The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
85%Baltimore RavensStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 13.8market BAL by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.3 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 85% to win, with the market at BAL by 12.5.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #3, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #25 into BAL's #11.
BAL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, CLE defends it at #8; the other way CLE #30 into BAL's #11.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours CLE. CLE sack rate ranks #25, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into CLE's #2. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 10.8 points a game (BAL +6.0, CLE -4.8).
Home field is with BAL, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 13.8 against a market BAL by 12.5: 1.3 points of daylight in BAL's favour. The model's total is 45.3 against a line of 46.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 13.8 · market BAL by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CLE
Slight advantage
CLE passing ranks #32, BAL defends it at #21; the other way BAL #20 into CLE's #3.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #3, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #25 into BAL's #11.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #12, CLE defends it at #8; the other way CLE #30 into BAL's #11.
Big plays
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, CLE defends it at #15; the other way CLE #27 into BAL's #21.
Pass protection & rush
CLE
Clear advantage
CLE sack rate ranks #25, BAL defends it at #31; the other way BAL #27 into CLE's #2.
Ball security
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL turnovers / game ranks #25, CLE defends it at #23; the other way CLE #29 into BAL's #19.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL +6.0 per game over the last five, CLE −4.8.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 12.5; the model says BAL by 13.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 12.5 · model BAL by 13.8
Mkt BAL 12.5
Model BAL 13.8
← CLE by 28tieBAL by 28 →
1.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 45.3
Mkt 46.5
Model 45.3
20 pts4672 pts
2.4% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 45.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
