The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Minnesota VikingsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIN by 1.4market MIN by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.9 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Minnesota Vikings at 54% to win, with the market at MIN by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with J.J. McCarthy starting for Minnesota Vikings, and the model prices that in.
MIN has the advantage in big plays: MIN explosive rush rate ranks #4, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #11 into MIN's #16.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into CHI's #1. The pick still lands on MIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MIN has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (CHI +0.0, MIN +13.6).
Home field is with CHI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MIN by 1.4 against a market MIN by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.9 against a line of 43.5: 3.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIN by 1.4 · market MIN by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor CHI, but the model still picks MIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
CHI passing ranks #9, MIN defends it at #2; the other way MIN #29 into CHI's #19.
Rushing game
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI rushing ranks #6, MIN defends it at #13; the other way MIN #18 into CHI's #19.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #17, CHI defends it at #21; the other way CHI #16 into MIN's #1.
Big plays
MIN
Clear advantage
MIN explosive rush rate ranks #4, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #11 into MIN's #16.
Pass protection & rush
CHI
Slight advantage
CHI sack rate ranks #1, MIN defends it at #3; the other way MIN #31 into CHI's #21.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #4, MIN defends it at #16; the other way MIN #32 into CHI's #1.
Form (last 5)
MIN
Clear advantage
CHI 0.0 per game over the last five, MIN +13.6.
Market
MIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has MIN by 1.5; the model says MIN by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket MIN by 1.5 · model MIN by 1.4
Mkt MIN 1.5
Model MIN 1.4
← MIN by 28tieCHI by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 39.9
Mkt 43.5
Model 39.9
20 pts4672 pts
12.1% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 39.9. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
