The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Green Bay PackersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
GB by 0.0market GB by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.5 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Green Bay Packers at 50% to win, with the market at GB by 1.5.
GB has the advantage in big plays: GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into GB's #6.
Form: DET has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (GB -9.6, DET -1.6).
Home field is with GB, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it GB by 0.0 against a market GB by 1.5: 1.5 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 53.5 against a line of 48.5: 5.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model GB by 0.0 · market GB by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DET, but the model still picks GB. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
DET passing ranks #5, GB defends it at #22; the other way GB #1 into DET's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
DET rushing ranks #16, GB defends it at #17; the other way GB #22 into DET's #18.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
GB third-down conversion ranks #2, DET defends it at #9; the other way DET #19 into GB's #20.
Big plays
GB
Clear advantage
GB explosive rush rate ranks #12, DET defends it at #23; the other way DET #14 into GB's #6.
Pass protection & rush
DET
Slight advantage
DET sack rate ranks #17, GB defends it at #25; the other way GB #8 into DET's #8.
Ball security
=
Even
DET turnovers / game ranks #6, GB defends it at #26; the other way GB #2 into DET's #17.
Form (last 5)
DET
Clear advantage
GB −9.6 per game over the last five, DET −1.6.
Market
GB
Slight advantage
Consensus has GB by 1.5; the model says GB by 0.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket GB by 1.5 · model GB by 0.0
Mkt GB 1.5
Model GB 0.0
← DET by 28tieGB by 28 →
2.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 53.5
Mkt 48.5
Model 53.5
20 pts4672 pts
12.2% of NFL games finish between 48.5 and 53.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
