The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 1.9market SF by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.2 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 56% to win, with the market at SF by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Sam Darnold starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in passing: SEA passing ranks #7, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into SEA's #6.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, SF defends it at #8; the other way SF #25 into SEA's #1.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 19.6 points a game (SEA +16.4, SF -3.2).
Home field is with SEA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 1.9 against a market SF by 2.5: 4.4 points of daylight in SEA's favour. The model's total is 46.2 against a line of 43.5: 2.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 1.9 · market SF by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA passing ranks #7, SF defends it at #25; the other way SF #8 into SEA's #6.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #21, SF defends it at #23; the other way SF #13 into SEA's #1.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
SF red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, SEA defends it at #6; the other way SEA #20 into SF's #14.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive rush rate ranks #7, SF defends it at #8; the other way SF #25 into SEA's #1.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #11, SF defends it at #32; the other way SF #4 into SEA's #11.
Ball security
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA turnovers / game ranks #26, SF defends it at #28; the other way SF #31 into SEA's #4.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA +16.4 per game over the last five, SF −3.2.
Market
SF
Slight advantage
Consensus has SF by 2.5; the model says SEA by 1.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SF by 2.5 · model SEA by 1.9
Mkt SF 2.5
Model SEA 1.9
← SF by 28tieSEA by 28 →
7.1% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 46.2
Mkt 43.5
Model 46.2
20 pts4672 pts
8.7% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 46.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
