The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%New England PatriotsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NE by 0.4market NE by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has New England Patriots at 51% to win, with the market at NE by 2.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Drake Maye starting for New England Patriots, and the model prices that in.
NE has the advantage in passing: NE passing ranks #3, LV defends it at #23; the other way LV #30 into NE's #5.
NE has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: NE third-down conversion ranks #10, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #28 into NE's #7.
Form: NE has the better last five games by 20.4 points a game (NE +8.0, LV -12.4).
Home field is with NE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NE by 0.4 against a market NE by 2.5: 2.1 points of daylight in LV's favour. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 44.5: 3.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NE by 0.4 · market NE by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
NE
Clear advantage
NE passing ranks #3, LV defends it at #23; the other way LV #30 into NE's #5.
Rushing game
NE
Slight advantage
NE rushing ranks #27, LV defends it at #14; the other way LV #32 into NE's #12.
Third down & red zone
NE
Clear advantage
NE third-down conversion ranks #10, LV defends it at #31; the other way LV #28 into NE's #7.
Big plays
NE
Clear advantage
NE explosive pass rate ranks #2, LV defends it at #2; the other way LV #29 into NE's #3.
Pass protection & rush
NE
Slight advantage
NE sack rate ranks #28, LV defends it at #18; the other way LV #32 into NE's #16.
Ball security
NE
Clear advantage
NE turnovers / game ranks #16, LV defends it at #24; the other way LV #24 into NE's #9.
Form (last 5)
NE
Clear advantage
NE +8.0 per game over the last five, LV −12.4.
Market
NE
Slight advantage
Consensus has NE by 2.5; the model says NE by 0.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket NE by 2.5 · model NE by 0.4
Mkt NE 2.5
Model NE 0.4
← LV by 28tieNE by 28 →
4.6% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 41.2
Mkt 44.5
Model 41.2
20 pts4672 pts
9.1% of NFL games finish between 44.5 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
