The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
60%Buffalo BillsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BUF by 3.5market BAL by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.0 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Buffalo Bills at 60% to win, with the market at BAL by 1.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Lamar Jackson starting for Baltimore Ravens, and the model prices that in.
Counterpoint: passing favours BAL. BAL passing ranks #1, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #2 into BAL's #8. The pick still lands on BUF because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (BUF +8.4, BAL +16.6).
Home field is with BUF, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BUF by 3.5 against a market BAL by 1.5: 5.0 points of daylight in BUF's favour. The model's total is 54.0 against a line of 51.5: 2.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BUF by 3.5 · market BAL by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BAL, but the model still picks BUF. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #1, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #2 into BAL's #8.
Rushing game
=
Even
BUF rushing ranks #2, BAL defends it at #8; the other way BAL #1 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL third-down conversion ranks #1, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #6 into BAL's #17.
Big plays
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, BUF defends it at #31; the other way BUF #24 into BAL's #1.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Slight advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #4, BUF defends it at #21; the other way BUF #1 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #1, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into BUF's #3.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
BUF +8.4 per game over the last five, BAL +16.6.
Market
BAL
Slight advantage
Consensus has BAL by 1.5; the model says BUF by 3.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 1.5 · model BUF by 3.5
Mkt BAL 1.5
Model BUF 3.5
← BAL by 28tieBUF by 28 →
14.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 54.0
Mkt 51.5
Model 54.0
20 pts4672 pts
5.6% of NFL games finish between 51.5 and 54.0. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
