The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 4.2market SEA by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
34.8 pointsmarket 38.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 62% to win, with the market at SEA by 7.5.
Counterpoint: big plays favours SEA. SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into SEA's #8. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: SEA has 2 more days since its last game (LAR 8d, SEA 10d).
Home field is with LAR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 4.2 against a market SEA by 7.5: 11.7 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 34.8 against a line of 38.5: 3.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 4.2 · market SEA by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
LAR passing ranks #13, SEA defends it at #11; the other way SEA #20 into LAR's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
SEA rushing ranks #24, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into SEA's #16.
Third down & red zone
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA third-down conversion ranks #20, LAR defends it at #18; the other way LAR #24 into SEA's #10.
Big plays
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, LAR defends it at #27; the other way LAR #14 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, SEA defends it at #14; the other way SEA #24 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, SEA defends it at #15; the other way SEA #16 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR +4.2 per game over the last five, SEA 0.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 7.5; the model says LAR by 4.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 7.5 · model LAR by 4.2
Mkt SEA 7.5
Model LAR 4.2
← SEA by 28tieLAR by 28 →
37.9% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 6. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 38.5 · model 34.8
Mkt 38.5
Model 34.8
20 pts4672 pts
9.6% of NFL games finish between 38.5 and 34.8. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
