The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%Cincinnati BengalsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 0.7market CIN by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.5 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals at 52% to win, with the market at CIN by 3.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours DEN. DEN sack rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #19 into DEN's #1. The pick still lands on CIN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DEN has 3 more days since its last game (CIN 6d, DEN 9d).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 0.7 against a market CIN by 3.5: 2.8 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 57.5 against a line of 50.5: 7.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 0.7 · market CIN by 3.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor DEN, but the model still picks CIN. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN passing ranks #14, CIN defends it at #15; the other way CIN #7 into DEN's #1.
Rushing game
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN rushing ranks #16, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #18 into DEN's #4.
Third down & red zone
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN red-zone touchdown rate ranks #8, CIN defends it at #30; the other way CIN #5 into DEN's #1.
Big plays
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN explosive pass rate ranks #15, CIN defends it at #11; the other way CIN #26 into DEN's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN sack rate ranks #2, CIN defends it at #27; the other way CIN #19 into DEN's #1.
Ball security
=
Even
DEN turnovers / game ranks #11, CIN defends it at #10; the other way CIN #17 into DEN's #11.
Form (last 5)
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN +8.6 per game over the last five, DEN +3.8.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 3.5; the model says CIN by 0.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket CIN by 3.5 · model CIN by 0.7
Mkt CIN 3.5
Model CIN 0.7
← DEN by 28tieCIN by 28 →
12.3% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 57.5
Mkt 50.5
Model 57.5
20 pts4672 pts
15.1% of NFL games finish between 50.5 and 57.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
