The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Seattle SeahawksLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SEA by 3.0market SEA by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.3 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Seattle Seahawks at 59% to win, with the market at SEA by 3.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Geno Smith starting for Seattle Seahawks, and the model prices that in.
SEA has the advantage in big plays: SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, CHI defends it at #30; the other way CHI #28 into SEA's #8.
SEA has the advantage in rushing: SEA rushing ranks #24, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into SEA's #16.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours CHI. CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, SEA defends it at #15; the other way SEA #16 into CHI's #8. The pick still lands on SEA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: SEA has the better last five games by 12.2 points a game (CHI -12.2, SEA +0.0).
Home field is with CHI, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SEA by 3.0 against a market SEA by 3.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 41.3 against a line of 43.5: 2.2 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SEA by 3.0 · market SEA by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
SEA passing ranks #20, CHI defends it at #10; the other way CHI #25 into SEA's #11.
Rushing game
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA rushing ranks #24, CHI defends it at #25; the other way CHI #28 into SEA's #16.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
CHI red-zone touchdown rate ranks #6, SEA defends it at #8; the other way SEA #15 into CHI's #3.
Big plays
SEA
Clear advantage
SEA explosive pass rate ranks #17, CHI defends it at #30; the other way CHI #28 into SEA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
SEA
Slight advantage
SEA sack rate ranks #24, CHI defends it at #12; the other way CHI #32 into SEA's #14.
Ball security
CHI
Clear advantage
CHI turnovers / game ranks #5, SEA defends it at #15; the other way SEA #16 into CHI's #8.
Form (last 5)
SEA
Clear advantage
CHI −12.2 per game over the last five, SEA 0.0.
Market
SEA
Clear advantage
Consensus has SEA by 3.5; the model says SEA by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket SEA by 3.5 · model SEA by 3.0
Mkt SEA 3.5
Model SEA 3.0
← SEA by 28tieCHI by 28 →
6.8% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 41.3
Mkt 43.5
Model 41.3
20 pts4672 pts
5.2% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 41.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
