The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Baltimore RavensSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAL by 4.3market BAL by 5.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.1 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baltimore Ravens at 63% to win, with the market at BAL by 5.5.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with C.J. Stroud starting for Houston Texans, and the model prices that in.
BAL has the advantage in big plays: BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #13 into BAL's #1.
BAL has the advantage in rushing: BAL rushing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #3; the other way HOU #25 into BAL's #8.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours HOU. HOU turnovers / game ranks #13, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into HOU's #4. The pick still lands on BAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BAL has the better last five games by 20.0 points a game (HOU -3.4, BAL +16.6).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BAL by 4.3 against a market BAL by 5.5: 1.2 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 52.1 against a line of 46.5: 5.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAL by 4.3 · market BAL by 5.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL passing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #3; the other way HOU #22 into BAL's #8.
Rushing game
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL rushing ranks #1, HOU defends it at #3; the other way HOU #25 into BAL's #8.
Third down & red zone
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL red-zone touchdown rate ranks #1, HOU defends it at #21; the other way HOU #28 into BAL's #14.
Big plays
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL explosive rush rate ranks #2, HOU defends it at #13; the other way HOU #13 into BAL's #1.
Pass protection & rush
BAL
Clear advantage
BAL sack rate ranks #4, HOU defends it at #3; the other way HOU #30 into BAL's #6.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #13, BAL defends it at #25; the other way BAL #4 into HOU's #4.
Form (last 5)
BAL
Clear advantage
HOU −3.4 per game over the last five, BAL +16.6.
Market
BAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAL by 5.5; the model says BAL by 4.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket BAL by 5.5 · model BAL by 4.3
Mkt BAL 5.5
Model BAL 4.3
← BAL by 28tieHOU by 28 →
2.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 52.1
Mkt 46.5
Model 52.1
20 pts4672 pts
17.0% of NFL games finish between 46.5 and 52.1. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
