The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Kansas City ChiefsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KC by 4.8market KC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.6 pointsmarket 43.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas City Chiefs at 64% to win, with the market at KC by 3.
KC has the advantage in rushing: KC rushing ranks #14, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into KC's #12.
Counterpoint: big plays favours PIT. PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #27 into PIT's #15. The pick still lands on KC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: KC has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (PIT -13.2, KC -5.0).
Home field is with PIT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it KC by 4.8 against a market KC by 3: 1.8 points of daylight in KC's favour. The model's total is 40.6 against a line of 43.5: 2.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KC by 4.8 · market KC by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT passing ranks #18, KC defends it at #26; the other way KC #10 into PIT's #12.
Rushing game
KC
Clear advantage
KC rushing ranks #14, PIT defends it at #19; the other way PIT #22 into KC's #12.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
KC red-zone touchdown rate ranks #19, PIT defends it at #13; the other way PIT #29 into KC's #11.
Big plays
PIT
Clear advantage
PIT explosive pass rate ranks #8, KC defends it at #23; the other way KC #27 into PIT's #15.
Pass protection & rush
KC
Slight advantage
KC sack rate ranks #18, PIT defends it at #20; the other way PIT #27 into KC's #16.
Ball security
PIT
Slight advantage
PIT turnovers / game ranks #8, KC defends it at #17; the other way KC #9 into PIT's #5.
Form (last 5)
KC
Clear advantage
PIT −13.2 per game over the last five, KC −5.0.
Market
KC
Slight advantage
Consensus has KC by 3; the model says KC by 4.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket KC by 3 · model KC by 4.8
Mkt KC 3
Model KC 4.8
← KC by 28tiePIT by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 43.5 · model 40.6
Mkt 43.5
Model 40.6
20 pts4672 pts
8.6% of NFL games finish between 43.5 and 40.6. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
