The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Los Angeles RamsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAR by 4.5market LAR by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.9 pointsmarket 47
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Rams at 63% to win, with the market at LAR by 3.
LAR has the advantage in passing: LAR passing ranks #13, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into LAR's #14.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NYJ. NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #6, LAR defends it at #8; the other way LAR #30 into NYJ's #6. The pick still lands on LAR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: LAR has 3 more days since its last game (NYJ 7d, LAR 10d).
Form: LAR has the better last five games by 8.8 points a game (NYJ -4.6, LAR +4.2).
Home field is with NYJ, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LAR by 4.5 against a market LAR by 3: 1.5 points of daylight in LAR's favour. The model's total is 46.9 against a line of 47: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAR by 4.5 · market LAR by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR passing ranks #13, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #19 into LAR's #14.
Rushing game
=
Even
NYJ rushing ranks #20, LAR defends it at #23; the other way LAR #19 into NYJ's #20.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LAR red-zone touchdown rate ranks #25, NYJ defends it at #20; the other way NYJ #22 into LAR's #4.
Big plays
NYJ
Slight advantage
NYJ explosive rush rate ranks #6, LAR defends it at #8; the other way LAR #30 into NYJ's #6.
Pass protection & rush
LAR
Slight advantage
LAR sack rate ranks #11, NYJ defends it at #7; the other way NYJ #14 into LAR's #4.
Ball security
LAR
Clear advantage
LAR turnovers / game ranks #6, NYJ defends it at #27; the other way NYJ #12 into LAR's #14.
Form (last 5)
LAR
Clear advantage
NYJ −4.6 per game over the last five, LAR +4.2.
Market
LAR
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAR by 3; the model says LAR by 4.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAR by 3 · model LAR by 4.5
Mkt LAR 3
Model LAR 4.5
← LAR by 28tieNYJ by 28 →
2.5% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 47 · model 46.9
Mkt 47
Model 46.9
20 pts4672 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
