The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Denver BroncosLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DEN by 1.2market LAC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Denver Broncos at 54% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.
Quarterback: the pick was locked with Justin Herbert starting for Los Angeles Chargers, and the model prices that in.
DEN has the advantage in big plays: DEN explosive rush rate ranks #22, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into DEN's #5.
DEN has the advantage in passing: DEN passing ranks #14, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #15 into DEN's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours LAC. LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, DEN defends it at #11; the other way DEN #11 into LAC's #9. The pick still lands on DEN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with LAC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it DEN by 1.2 against a market LAC by 3: 4.2 points of daylight in DEN's favour. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 41.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DEN by 1.2 · market LAC by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN passing ranks #14, LAC defends it at #6; the other way LAC #15 into DEN's #1.
Rushing game
=
Even
DEN rushing ranks #16, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #17 into DEN's #4.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LAC third-down conversion ranks #11, DEN defends it at #14; the other way DEN #17 into LAC's #4.
Big plays
DEN
Slight advantage
DEN explosive rush rate ranks #22, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into DEN's #5.
Pass protection & rush
DEN
Clear advantage
DEN sack rate ranks #2, LAC defends it at #9; the other way LAC #23 into DEN's #1.
Ball security
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, DEN defends it at #11; the other way DEN #11 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
LAC +2.2 per game over the last five, DEN +3.8.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3; the model says DEN by 1.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3 · model DEN by 1.2
Mkt LAC 3
Model DEN 1.2
← DEN by 28tieLAC by 28 →
7.2% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 42.5
Mkt 41.5
Model 42.5
20 pts4672 pts
1.7% of NFL games finish between 41.5 and 42.5. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
