The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Los Angeles ChargersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LAC by 3.7market LAC by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
43.3 pointsmarket 46
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers at 61% to win, with the market at LAC by 3.
LAC has the advantage in passing: LAC passing ranks #15, TB defends it at #25; the other way TB #4 into LAC's #6.
Counterpoint: big plays favours TB. TB explosive rush rate ranks #4, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into TB's #2. The pick still lands on LAC because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TB has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (LAC +2.2, TB +12.0).
Home field is with LAC, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LAC by 3.7 against a market LAC by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 43.3 against a line of 46: 2.7 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LAC by 3.7 · market LAC by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor TB, but the model still picks LAC. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
LAC
Slight advantage
LAC passing ranks #15, TB defends it at #25; the other way TB #4 into LAC's #6.
Rushing game
TB
Slight advantage
TB rushing ranks #6, LAC defends it at #7; the other way LAC #17 into TB's #6.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TB red-zone touchdown rate ranks #4, LAC defends it at #2; the other way LAC #20 into TB's #9.
Big plays
TB
Clear advantage
TB explosive rush rate ranks #4, LAC defends it at #21; the other way LAC #26 into TB's #2.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LAC sack rate ranks #23, TB defends it at #19; the other way TB #16 into LAC's #9.
Ball security
LAC
Clear advantage
LAC turnovers / game ranks #3, TB defends it at #26; the other way TB #23 into LAC's #9.
Form (last 5)
TB
Clear advantage
LAC +2.2 per game over the last five, TB +12.0.
Market
LAC
Slight advantage
Consensus has LAC by 3; the model says LAC by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket LAC by 3 · model LAC by 3.7
Mkt LAC 3
Model LAC 3.7
← TB by 28tieLAC by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.7, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 14.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 46 · model 43.3
Mkt 46
Model 43.3
20 pts4672 pts
6.3% of NFL games finish between 46 and 43.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
