The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
62%Detroit LionsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
DET by 4.3market DET by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.3 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Detroit Lions at 62% to win, with the market at DET by 2.5.
DET has the advantage in passing: DET passing ranks #3, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #2 into DET's #7.
DET has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: DET third-down conversion ranks #4, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #6 into DET's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours BUF. BUF turnovers / game ranks #1, DET defends it at #12; the other way DET #14 into BUF's #3. The pick still lands on DET because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: DET has 3 more days since its last game (DET 10d, BUF 7d).
Home field is with DET, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it DET by 4.3 against a market DET by 2.5: 1.8 points of daylight in DET's favour. The model's total is 60.3 against a line of 55.5: 4.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model DET by 4.3 · market DET by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor BUF, but the model still picks DET. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
DET
Clear advantage
DET passing ranks #3, BUF defends it at #27; the other way BUF #2 into DET's #7.
Rushing game
BUF
Slight advantage
BUF rushing ranks #2, DET defends it at #14; the other way DET #3 into BUF's #5.
Third down & red zone
DET
Clear advantage
DET third-down conversion ranks #4, BUF defends it at #29; the other way BUF #6 into DET's #1.
Big plays
=
Even
DET explosive rush rate ranks #3, BUF defends it at #31; the other way BUF #24 into DET's #11.
Pass protection & rush
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF sack rate ranks #1, DET defends it at #30; the other way DET #8 into BUF's #21.
Ball security
BUF
Clear advantage
BUF turnovers / game ranks #1, DET defends it at #12; the other way DET #14 into BUF's #3.
Form (last 5)
BUF
Slight advantage
DET +5.0 per game over the last five, BUF +8.4.
Market
DET
Slight advantage
Consensus has DET by 2.5; the model says DET by 4.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,893 NFL games since 2012
Marginmarket DET by 2.5 · model DET by 4.3
Mkt DET 2.5
Model DET 4.3
← BUF by 28tieDET by 28 →
10.0% of NFL games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (14.5%), 7 (8.6%), 6 (6.7%), 14 (5.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 60.3
Mkt 55.5
Model 60.3
20 pts4672 pts
7.9% of NFL games finish between 55.5 and 60.3. The league’s median total since 2012 is 45.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
